11 Predictions for 2011

There's nothing wrong (or hard) with making predictions, especially when everyone is making the same ones. Whether they're regarding the real-time web, location based services, digital curation or content creation, many pundits are on the same wavelength. So, why not take all of this one step further? Since it is already 2010, why not predict what will happen next year? Just for fun, here are 11 things that will definitely, without hesitation or question, happen in 2011.

My Predictions for 2011

1. The Facebook Murders: Millions of Facebook users begin to be more conscientious about their updates (location-based and otherwise) as a rash of murders occur due to over-sharing. Their new, organically grown location-based service never eclipses FourSquare. Consequently, ad revenue (and stock price) dives due to lowered weekly visits and gloomy trends in overall traffic. 
2. Generation No: Facebook loses its grip on an entire generation as kids (from middle school, high school and college to young professionals) don't want to be on the same social network as their parents.
3. Where's Happening? Twitter's merger with FourSquare proved deft as advertising revenue for the location-based service skyrockets, the perfect precursor for their upcoming IPO. FourSquare/Twitter users protest the use of the app by food chains as they finally realize the costs are a fraction of the benefits and dominate the ad market.
4. Minor Crackdown: Congress prohibits minors from check-ins on all location-based services.
5. Digital Rabbit Ears: CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC will all be owned by national cable providers, after major consolidation in the space in 2010. 
6. iTubes: Apple TV and iTunes proved to be the perfect infrastructure for delivering video content, live or on-demand, to millions of consumers. Taking it one step further, and to compete with Google's venture into the space (stay tuned), Apple will begin testing a new version which will allow consumers to get the content free of charge. By confirming with the Apple Remote (or retinal scan) that you viewed a commercial when prompted on screen (randomized time during each commercial), viewers earn credits which subsidize the cost of the $30/month service. Advertisers will receive hundreds of millions less impressions, but will finally get the precise measurement and accurate targeting they'd been promised for over a century.
   
7. ThemTube: Not to be outdone by Apple, Google launches a new section of YouTube which isolates video from the major content creators. In Pure High Definition (patent pending) viewers will be able to receive live and on-demand content free of charge. 
   
8. 50% of all online purchases are made from a mobile device: I don't know what the current percentage is but I'd assume it's under 10%, maybe under 2% or even 1%. I have a feeling that Google Goggles will have a major effect on purchasing decisions as consumers will be able to find the products they like at Brick and Mortars and buy the product from somewhere else using an application on their mobile phone. Amazon makes a bid on the Goggles before realizing Google sees them as a competitor.
   
9. Steal OS': Google's operating system begins selling on desktops, laptops and tablets after a successful launch with netbooks. Google will subsidize many of these devices due to the enlarged ad-delivery network that will result.
   
10. Faded Glory: As a fad for some, social media fatigue sets in for millions of users worldwide as they realize that it takes a lot of effort to create content constantly, even if it's only 140 characters at a time. Many major influencers and social media experts that appeared out of nowhere in 2009 will quit the space in dramatic fashion.
    
11. iCar: Apple will break into the automotive space by offering their own line of in-dash music players. Due to the collapse of the satellite radio industry, the lack of advances in the terrestrial space shows the huge potential for the line. Additionally, major advances in fuel cell and hybrid technology, combined with attractive rebates for new consumers, lifts auto sales close to pre-Great Recession levels.
    

Ok. I can't help but put in a few for 2010.

1. A huge acquisition or merger will occur in the PC market. Microsoft may even choose to purchase Dell, HP or Compaq as they all were successful in their first foray with mobile phones.
2. IBM acquires SalesForce.
3. TimeWarner reacquires AOL as no one purchases the stock in the IPO.
4. Google Wave integrates Google Voice features and begins to make Skype worried.
5. As many newspapers go online-only in 2010 as banks failed in 2009. New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are the only 2 U.S. papers to see an increase in print subscribers. Politico prepares to go daily as Rupert Murdoch launches a competing, conservative daily. (Both go weekly in 2011.)
6. The new conversation trend for self-proclaimed social media experts in 2010 will be Authenticity (not realizing it was a trend 4 years ago because they weren't in social media 4 years ago).

Now I'm content.

Happy New Year!
 
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The New Mobile Advertising Model; Exactly

While everyone is talking about the lines, activation issues, lack of new features, GPS, the genius of certain applications, the impact of certain applications (rightfully so), etc., a much bigger story is taking shape. Millions of people have purchased the new iPhone 3G. In fact, over the weekend alone 1 million were sold. This would leave me to believe (especially considering that our local AT&T shop is out for 7 - 21 days) that many millions more have been sold. While there is no doubt they (Nasdaq: AAPL) will exceed sales expectations and engender millions of new loyal Mac users, they are also doing a huge favor for their partners... both advertising and application. Apple has just created one of the largest advertisement delivery networks ever.

Each user of the new device, as well as the old device, will be consuming content in the most modern way ... via RSS feeds and efficient open-sourced applications. I am not quite sure why it has not gotten much coverage yet, but Apple is monetizing their phone better than many websites are. This should be viewed as a very big sea change in advertising (are you watching, Google?). Monetizing Web sites is a somewhat recent invention ... not only is Apple selling applications to their users, but they are selling advertising space to their partners ... that is, if they are getting this revenue!?!

Having downloaded the 2.0 firmware July 10th, I've accessed the NYTimes application several times and only seen this Westin ad. I'm sure I'm not alone ... How many people have seen this add? One million? How many iPhone 1.0 and 2.0 users are there? How many times has this application been downloaded? Luckily, I'm sure Apple will be able to tell, in this case, Westin, exactly how many people have seen their advertisement.

To many this doesn't sound very major. It is. The one thing that advertising and marketing firms have been terrible at, as long as they've existed, is precision. PR has always had the expectation of precision: exactly how many papers covered the story; exactly how many people viewed the press release; exactly.

I doubt Apple is going to be providing "Opportunities to View" as the measure to their clients. They will tell Westin exactly how many people saw their ad ... they could probably tell them, to a certain degree, who. Regarding precise demographics, which I'm sure AT&T and Apple have, they may be able to tell everything ... one via contracts and social security numbers, the other via iTunes and other web habits.

We will see if Apple will squander this opportunity by failing the measurement test or by failing our privacy expectations ... I doubt it.

What advertisements have you seen? Which applications are being advertised on/in?


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