11 Predictions for 2011

There's nothing wrong (or hard) with making predictions, especially when everyone is making the same ones. Whether they're regarding the real-time web, location based services, digital curation or content creation, many pundits are on the same wavelength. So, why not take all of this one step further? Since it is already 2010, why not predict what will happen next year? Just for fun, here are 11 things that will definitely, without hesitation or question, happen in 2011.

My Predictions for 2011

1. The Facebook Murders: Millions of Facebook users begin to be more conscientious about their updates (location-based and otherwise) as a rash of murders occur due to over-sharing. Their new, organically grown location-based service never eclipses FourSquare. Consequently, ad revenue (and stock price) dives due to lowered weekly visits and gloomy trends in overall traffic. 
2. Generation No: Facebook loses its grip on an entire generation as kids (from middle school, high school and college to young professionals) don't want to be on the same social network as their parents.
3. Where's Happening? Twitter's merger with FourSquare proved deft as advertising revenue for the location-based service skyrockets, the perfect precursor for their upcoming IPO. FourSquare/Twitter users protest the use of the app by food chains as they finally realize the costs are a fraction of the benefits and dominate the ad market.
4. Minor Crackdown: Congress prohibits minors from check-ins on all location-based services.
5. Digital Rabbit Ears: CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC will all be owned by national cable providers, after major consolidation in the space in 2010. 
6. iTubes: Apple TV and iTunes proved to be the perfect infrastructure for delivering video content, live or on-demand, to millions of consumers. Taking it one step further, and to compete with Google's venture into the space (stay tuned), Apple will begin testing a new version which will allow consumers to get the content free of charge. By confirming with the Apple Remote (or retinal scan) that you viewed a commercial when prompted on screen (randomized time during each commercial), viewers earn credits which subsidize the cost of the $30/month service. Advertisers will receive hundreds of millions less impressions, but will finally get the precise measurement and accurate targeting they'd been promised for over a century.
   
7. ThemTube: Not to be outdone by Apple, Google launches a new section of YouTube which isolates video from the major content creators. In Pure High Definition (patent pending) viewers will be able to receive live and on-demand content free of charge. 
   
8. 50% of all online purchases are made from a mobile device: I don't know what the current percentage is but I'd assume it's under 10%, maybe under 2% or even 1%. I have a feeling that Google Goggles will have a major effect on purchasing decisions as consumers will be able to find the products they like at Brick and Mortars and buy the product from somewhere else using an application on their mobile phone. Amazon makes a bid on the Goggles before realizing Google sees them as a competitor.
   
9. Steal OS': Google's operating system begins selling on desktops, laptops and tablets after a successful launch with netbooks. Google will subsidize many of these devices due to the enlarged ad-delivery network that will result.
   
10. Faded Glory: As a fad for some, social media fatigue sets in for millions of users worldwide as they realize that it takes a lot of effort to create content constantly, even if it's only 140 characters at a time. Many major influencers and social media experts that appeared out of nowhere in 2009 will quit the space in dramatic fashion.
    
11. iCar: Apple will break into the automotive space by offering their own line of in-dash music players. Due to the collapse of the satellite radio industry, the lack of advances in the terrestrial space shows the huge potential for the line. Additionally, major advances in fuel cell and hybrid technology, combined with attractive rebates for new consumers, lifts auto sales close to pre-Great Recession levels.
    

Ok. I can't help but put in a few for 2010.

1. A huge acquisition or merger will occur in the PC market. Microsoft may even choose to purchase Dell, HP or Compaq as they all were successful in their first foray with mobile phones.
2. IBM acquires SalesForce.
3. TimeWarner reacquires AOL as no one purchases the stock in the IPO.
4. Google Wave integrates Google Voice features and begins to make Skype worried.
5. As many newspapers go online-only in 2010 as banks failed in 2009. New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are the only 2 U.S. papers to see an increase in print subscribers. Politico prepares to go daily as Rupert Murdoch launches a competing, conservative daily. (Both go weekly in 2011.)
6. The new conversation trend for self-proclaimed social media experts in 2010 will be Authenticity (not realizing it was a trend 4 years ago because they weren't in social media 4 years ago).

Now I'm content.

Happy New Year!
 
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